金融分析师加里-希林（Gary Shilling）表示，美国经济仍可能面临 "延迟的"衰退。"加里-希林告诉CNBC："我们在就业方面的优势可能超过了与商业状况相称的水平。在本期"底线"节目中，加里-席林将从关键指标、人工智能、全球化和总统大选等方面探讨经济的下一步走势。
加里-希林（Gary Shilling）
Belljoe
1天前
It is a government inspired crisis this time. The Treasury have to sell Bonds to cover the trade imbalance and the government spending imbalance. In order to sell them they have to raise interest rates and the old long-term, low risk, low interest, AAA investments (including Treasury Bonds), held by the banks (often due to government regulatory policy), become next to worthless. The next milestone is the 15th when the government issue a new batch of Bonds.
这次是政府引发的危机。财政部必须出售债券来弥补贸易失衡和政府支出失衡。为了出售这些债券，他们必须提高利率，而银行持有的长期、低风险、低利率、AAA 级投资（包括国债）（通常是由于政府的监管政策）几乎变得一文不值。下一个里程碑是 15 日，政府将发行一批新债券。
Jamesbluel
4天前
In this case but the whole world is basically in a recession and the US is not and not at all so I would say it has to do with corruption in US favor
在这种情况下，但整个世界基本上都在衰退，而美国没有，而且根本没有，所以我认为这与美国的腐败有关。
Jamesblueli
4天前
The US doesn't export anything really it actually imports alot from everyone so how do you figure that?
美国实际上不出口任何东西，实际上它从每个人那里进口很多东西，你是怎么得出这个结论的？
Doodle
4天前
exports weapons sir. And holds patents on most modern technology.
出口武器，先生，并拥有大多数现代技术的专利。
Antoniox
4天前
Recessions are cyclical so it’s coming. It’s just a matter of when.
经济衰退是周期性的，所以它会到来，只是时间问题。
Millevenon
4天前
America exported 3 trillion worth of goods just last year. Just behind china which exported 3.8 trillion worth of goods
仅去年一年，美国出口了价值3万亿美元的商品。仅次于出口价值3.8万亿美元商品的中国！
KevinSmith
4天前
Technically there is a recession using the definition of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. They redefined a recession, then downplayed inflation.
从技术上讲，按照国内生产总值连续两个季度负增长的定义，经济已经出现衰退。他们重新定义了经济衰退，然后淡化了通货膨胀。
Ragingmonk
4天前
"The US doesn't export anything really it actually" "The United States is the world's second-largest exporter, with 2023 exports reaching $3.1 trillion, a record high. " You comment aged like milk that was spoiled when it was poured.
"美国其实什么都不出口？美国是世界第二大出口国，2023 年出口额将达到 3.1 万亿美元，创历史新高。" 你的评论就像倒出来就变质的牛奶一样老掉牙。
Santostv
4天前
I love that American underestimate usa power over the world, big tech companies are from USA,biggest phone seller from USA, Europe is buying oil/gas making usa our biggest supplier and we buy military equipment from USA.You have the world reserve currency, number 1 mil*tary power, number 1 consumption country.
我喜欢美国人低估了美国对世界的影响力，大型科技公司来自美国，最大的手机销售商来自美国，欧洲购买石油/天然气使美国成为我们最大的供应商，我们从美国购买军事装备。你们拥有世界储备货币、头号军事强国、头号消费大国。
Ragingmonk
4天前
We know that we are at the top of the food chain and are the world's second largest exporter. Little bit of humility should not be seen as us under estimating.
我们知道自己处于食物链的顶端，是世界第二大出口国，谦虚一点并不代表我们估计不足。
Ragingmonk
4天前
US beef exports to China: $2.23 billion in the first 10 months of 2022 US pork exports to China: $1.7 billion per year US chicken exports to China: $3.4 billion per year United States ships more than 50 billion gallons of water to China, per year. Soybeans accounted for nearly one-half of U.S. agricultural exports to China at a record $16.4 billion. - Jan 6. 2023"
美国牛肉对华出口：2022 年前 10 个月达 22.3 亿美元；美国猪肉对华出口：每年 17 亿美元；美国鸡肉对华出口：每年 34 亿美元；美国每年运往中国的水超过 500 亿加仑。大豆占美国对华农产品出口的近一半，达到创纪录的 164 亿美元。- 2023 年 1 月 6 日
Bluelightning
4天前
The American economy is red hot. The economy of Germany and the UK is weak. The new ammo plants need to be built there to stimulate those economies. But it has to be done with European money, not my call. UK is complaining that American investors own to much in the UK and Europe. Doesn't matter that it creates jobs, America is the bad guy.
美国经济红红火火。德国和英国经济疲软。为了刺激这些国家的经济，需要在那里建立新的弹药工厂。但必须用欧洲的钱，这不是我能决定的。英国抱怨美国投资者在英国和欧洲拥有太多资产。创造就业机会并不重要，美国才是坏人。
Emersonstagnitta
3天前
The recession is not already here? My holdings are down by about 40%, things are generally more expensive now. Are they implying it can get worse?
经济衰退不是已经到来了吗？我持有的股票下跌了约 40%，现在的东西普遍更贵了，他们是在暗示情况会变得更糟吗？
Yarhnam
5天前
Not A ‘Delayed’ Recession but it's a A ‘Delayed’ Informations to public
不是 "延迟"衰退，而是 "延迟"向公众提供信息！
Gymdoc
4天前
Recession requires high unemployment and two consecutive quarters of negative GPD. That has not happened
经济衰退需要高失业率和连续两个季度的GDP负增长，但这并没有发生！
Ronaldbartolome
4天前
by US standards , u are correct... but by texbook definition, u are wrong... US was already in recession 1st half of 2022...google US GDP for the 1st half of 2022.. It was negative.. But since The US Govt noticed it, it started borrowing more money to pump the economy..
按照美国的标准，你是对的......但按照教科书的定义，你是错的...... 美国在 2022 年上半年就已陷入衰退......谷歌一下美国 2022 年上半年的 GDP。它是负数...... 但自从美国政府注意到这一点后，就开始借更多的钱来刺激经济......
US middle class is deteriorating fast....less taxes from them... more US budget deficit. Janet yellens solution to the budget deficit? BORROW MORE MONEY...LOL. Since 2023, part time employment & Govt jobs increased (less taxes) while white collar jobs decreased (the middle class who pay more taxes)..
美国中产阶级的生活每况愈下..........更多的美国预算赤字。珍妮特-耶伦解决预算赤字的办法？借更多的钱......哈哈~~自2023年以来，兼职工作和政府工作增加了（少缴税），而白领工作减少了（中产阶级多缴税）.............
Wallstreettrader
1天前
Recession for about 3 years. Depression on the way.
经济衰退持续3年左右，萧条即将来临。
JasonA
4天前
Its only a recession for companies. The average American has been in a recession for a few years now. When prices doubled on a lot of groceries it began.
这只是公司的衰退，普通美国人的经济衰退已经持续了几年。当许多食品杂货的价格翻倍时，衰退就开始了。
DevoutSkeptic
5天前
If it could make the housing market finally crash, that'd be great.
如果能让房地产市场最终崩溃，那就太好了。
TheAnonymous
4天前
Why are you wishing for people to lose their home so that you can afford one?
你为什么希望别人失去房子，好让你买得起房子？
Abdiganiaden
4天前
Yes actually. Sick of real estate robbing next generation wealth.
实际上是的，厌倦了房地产掠夺下一代的财富。
Mediumus
4天前（修改过）
The housing market is "too big to fail" at this point. I don't think the average consumer will have much leverage even in a housing crash today. Banks will tighten lending restrictions and the rates of the past won't be seen for many years to come.
在这一点上，房地产市场 "大到不能倒"。我认为，即使在今天的房地产崩盘中，普通消费者也不会有太大的杠杆作用。银行会收紧贷款限制，过去的利率在未来很多年都不会再出现。
Badbadbadcat
5天前
Printing $1 trillion every 100 days is one way to tackle recession lol
每 100 天印 1 万亿美元是应对经济衰退的一种方法，哈哈~~
Erniewinn
1天前
Since 2020, this economy is a house of cards... just smoke and mirrors, no substance. The economy sucks, and I see a huge recession or even a depression. It's a bubble that is going to burst and crash like 2008.
自 2020 年以来，经济就像纸牌搭的房子......只有烟雾和镜子，没有实质内容。经济糟透了，我看到了巨大的衰退甚至萧条。这是一个泡沫，会像2008年那样破灭和崩溃。
BigHeadAvenger
1天前
Keep saying it and one day it’ll be true.
继续说下去，总有一天会成真的。
Definitely
19小时前
All signs point to reasons to increase interest rates. If they cut now it will be a disaster. They will probably just try not to touch them though.
所有迹象都表明有理由提高利率。如果他们现在降息，那将是一场灾难。不过，他们可能会尽量不去碰利率。
Poochyenarulez
4天前
Getting tired hearing about how a recession is around the corner for the past 2+ years now.I’ve been hearing about the coming great collapse since 2009
过去两年多来，经济衰退就在眼前，我已经听腻了。自 2009 年以来，我就一直听说大崩溃即将来临。
Evalangley
4天前（修改过）
There is not going to be a recession in the next 2 years because the semiconductor industry literally became the main economy driver and will expend for decades. The markets are going to explode in 2 years when interest rates go back down a bit.
未来两年不会出现经济衰退，因为半导体产业已成为经济的主要驱动力，并将持续数十年。两年后，利率稍有回落，市场就会爆发。
Karmasutra
3天前
When do you think a recession would hit us? After the election? Election years usually are up years I thought.
你认为经济衰退会在什么时候到来？大选之后？我认为选举年通常是经济增长年。
Ntbeatsbydre
4天前
If we're gonna get recessions this often then we need to completely rehaul capitalism.
如果经济衰退如此频繁，我们就需要彻底改革资本主义。
CreativWyse
15小时前
Interest rate increase does not stop price hike. Nothing will stop greedy people. We will just end in recession becos people cant afford things and businesses close down people losing jobs. In fact raising interest rate just makes rich people richer. When this goes too far people get frustrated and chaos ensure which means no one wins. The rich has no where peaceful to spend their $.
加息并不能阻止物价上涨，没有什么能阻止贪婪的人们。我们只会陷入衰退，因为人们买不起东西，企业倒闭，人们失业。事实上，提高利率只会让富人更富有。当这种情况发展到一定程度时，人们就会感到沮丧，从而引发混乱，这意味着没有人是赢家。富人无处安放他们的钱。
Malachiszara
4天前
The economy is getting such low consumer confidence and cost of living struggles are incredible right now. The media is holding back any economic recession until after the election. And if Trump wins the election. You will pretty much hear a recession happening right around his inauguration day
经济正变得如此低迷，消费者信心和生活成本的挣扎令人难以置信。媒体在大选之后才会透露经济衰退的消息。如果特朗普赢得大选。在他的就职典礼当天，你几乎会听到经济衰退的消息！
Imtiyazhossain
3天前
I don't understand why U.S. has been so obsessed with China for the past seven and a half years. I've watched them discuss China in every news article; what's up with their hypocritical thinking? It made me feel a little strange.
我不明白为什么美国在过去的七年半里对中国如此着迷。我看到他们在每篇新闻报道中都讨论中国，他们虚伪的想法是怎么回事？这让我觉得有点奇怪。
Santostv
3天前（修改过）
US has been in recession for past 20-30 years. Why it’s not recovering today and will not recover for a decade is because it’s diminishing power to print dollars. USA cannot print anymore more dollars. Hence the top 10 richest people in USA wants to make as much money as possible before Great Depression sets in, there is no recession.
过去 20-30 年来，美国一直处于经济衰退之中。为什么今天还没有复苏，而且十年内都不会复苏，因为它印美元的能力越来越弱。美国不能再印美元了。因此，美国前十大富豪希望在大萧条到来之前尽可能多地赚钱，而不会出现经济衰退。
Saminishraq
4天前
I have been waiting for this prophesized recession since late 2021
自 2021 年末以来，我一直在等待这次预言中的经济衰退。
Jurmyhyle
4天前
What kind of system hopes its economy suffers but hopes adversary economies prosper? What a dumb world.
什么样的制度希望自己的经济受损，却希望对手的经济繁荣？真是个愚蠢的世界。 |
