日元为何崩溃,为什么日元对美元如此疲软?

299 0
卡卡西里 2024-5-11 01:00:03 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
日元在跌至1990年4月以来的最低水平后,再次成为人们关注的焦点。在最近一次贬值后,日元的疲软再次成为人们关注的焦点。日元兑美元汇率以自1990年4月以来的最低水平下跌至160.17,为1990年4月以来的最低水平。当天晚些时候,日元兑美元汇率回升至1美元兑155.01日元,引发人们猜测,日本当局已出手干预,以支撑日元的价值。

日元为何崩溃,为什么日元对美元如此疲软?

日元为何崩溃,为什么日元对美元如此疲软?

Shibbymatt
7小时前
Japan has been living in the year 2000 since the 1980s

日本自 20 世纪 80 年代以来一直生活在 2000 年!


Zunken
7小时前
Ye they still youse fax on work and not mail

他们还在工作中使用传真而不是邮件吗?(评论内容由音飞网翻译)


Grimaffiliations
7小时前
Was in Japan 2 months ago. It still feels like they’re 10-20 years ahead — compared to NYC anyways. It’s weird because they embrace outdated tech but also utilize new innovations, so it feels very retrofuturistic in a way

两个月前在日本。无论如何,与纽约相比,他们仍然感觉领先10-20年。这很奇怪,因为他们采用过时的技术,但也利用新的创新,所以在某种程度上感觉非常复古未来主义!


Mkill
7小时前
LOL it’s the opposite, Japan still pretends the 80ies never ended

笑死我了,恰恰相反,日本还在假装 80 年代从未结束过。


Donaldlee
4小时前(修改过)
Long story short US intervention under the table lead to Japan's economy crashing as to not overcome US economy at risk of being rival to it...

长话短说,美国私下的干预导致日本经济崩溃,因为日本无法克服美国经济成为其竞争对手的风险…


Mrfancygoat
7小时前
I wouldn't consider japans economy as collapsing but it is in decline.

我不认为日本经济正在崩溃,但它确实在衰退。


AtakenSmith
7小时前
They are importing more than exporting. That is the problem. It's called "Trade Deficit". Which is considered a bad thing in a long run.

他们的进口多于出口,这就是问题所在,这就是所谓的 “贸易赤字”。从长远来看,这是一件坏事。


Alexgauthier
7小时前
The quest for infinite growth on a planet with finite ressources. What could go wrong?

在资源有限的星球上追求无限增长,会出什么问题?


A.S._Trunks
5小时前(修改过)
Why do people keep repeating this? More resources aren't the only source of growth. Improvements in technology contribute to growth too by increasing efficiency of resource usage and making more resources available - e.g. better extraction and material processing methods.

为什么人们总是在重复这句话呢?更多的资源并不是增长的唯一来源。技术的进步也有助于增长,因为技术的进步提高了资源的使用效率,使更多的资源得以利用--例如,更好的开采和材料加工方法。


Googane
7小时前
Japan's lost decades were largely triggered by the USA who were in the late 80s downright paranoid about that country's ascendance in manufacturing.Those old enough to be an adult then will remember it well. In the 1980s the yen was 220 to the USD and it was an export led economy that had eye-watering trade surpluses with every developed country in the world.

日本失去的几十年在很大程度上是由美国引发的,美国在上世纪 80 年代末对日本制造业的崛起产生了彻头彻尾的偏执。那些已经成年的人会对当时的情况记忆犹新。20 世纪 80 年代,日元兑美元汇率为 220,日本是一个出口导向型经济体,与世界上所有发达国家都有令人瞠目的贸易顺差。


Through a combination of political pressure and currency manipulation (which the USA was uniquely able to do due to the power of the petrodollar, especially in those days), they forced the YEN to appreciate to 110 to the dollar making Japanese goods twice as expensive to crater its exports, and crater it did. With corporate profits tanked, companies stopped investing.

通过政治压力和货币操纵(由于石油美元的威力,尤其是在那个时代,美国在这方面有着得天独厚的能力),他们迫使日元升值到 1 美元兑 110 日元,使日本商品的价格翻了一番,从而导致其出口萎缩,而事实也确实如此。随着企业利润下滑,公司停止了投资。


Whereas this would normally result in a deep recession and high unemployment for a few years before growth returned again, as Japanese culture view lay-offs as anathema, they retained their employees and depressed wages instead. So we have this unique scenario of consistent near full employment with deflationary pressure instead.

这通常会导致严重的经济衰退和数年的高失业率,然后再恢复增长,但由于日本文化视裁员为大忌,因此他们留住了员工,并压低了工资。因此,我们就有了这种独特的情况,即持续接近充分就业,但却面临通货紧缩的压力。


As a side note, Japan's lost decades helped open the door for Korea and China rise. Once upon a time, you can't go to the electrical section and find it filled 90% with Japanese products, now it's filled with Korean and Chinese TVs and refrigerators. In the case of the latter, perhaps the tale will have an ironic twist whereby America's fear of Japan helped a create a bigger dragon to rise and this was one is nowhere near as friendly to the US as Japan was/is.

话说回来,日本失去的几十年为韩国和中国的崛起打开了大门。曾几何时,你到电器区一看,发现里面 90% 都是日本产品,而现在到处都是韩国和中国的电视机和冰箱。就后者而言,也许这个故事会有一个讽刺性的转折,即美国对日本的恐惧帮助了一条更大的巨龙崛起,而这条巨龙对美国的友好程度远不及日本。


Archchill
2小时前
US always backstabs its allies. These lost decades were all triggered by the plaza accords which the us imposed on japan.

美国总是在背后捅盟友的刀子,这些失去的几十年都是由美国强加给日本的《广场协议》引发的。


NoName-zmks
7小时前
The same thing happened to Mexico in the early 1980s, on the road to be a regional financial powerhouse then nipped in the bud.

上世纪80年代初,同样的事情也发生在墨西哥身上,当时墨西哥正在成为地区金融强国的道路上,但却被扼杀在萌芽状态。


GonzoTehGreat
7小时前
The currency is collapsing against the US dollar, Sterling and to the euro to a lesser extent.Interestingly the Yen is stable against their next door neighbours the Russian ruble and to a lesser degree the Chinese yuan.The Yen is also relatively stable to the Brazilian Real and South African Rand - all BRICS currencies.I wouldn't be surprised if Japan is a shadow member of BRICS who seem to be using their own currencies amongst themselves.

货币对美元、英镑正在崩溃,对欧元也是如此。有趣的是,日元对其隔壁邻居俄罗斯卢布的汇率稳定,对人民币的汇率也比较稳定。日元对巴西雷亚尔和南非兰特(均为金砖国家货币)的汇率也相对稳定。如果日本是金砖国家的影子成员,我也不会感到惊讶,因为金砖国家之间似乎都在使用自己的货币。


Japan holds $1.29 trillion in US reserves and now they're offloading some of that to buy yen to stabilise agsinst the USD. But maybe they'll need to do that less and less once they get more and more into the system that is operating outside the US dollar.

日本持有 1.29 万亿美元的美国储备,现在他们正在出售其中的一部分来购买日元,以稳定美元汇率。不过,一旦他们越来越多地进入美元以外的运作体系,也许他们需要这么做的次数就会越来越少。


Evolution
7小时前
but Japan is a net exporter, so a decreasing yen will mean cheaper products for the rest of the world which will increase their manufacturing and therefore their economy as a whole. The graph they show is misrepresenting what's happening.

但日本是一个净出口国,因此日元贬值意味着世界其他国家的产品更便宜,这将增加日本的制造业,从而提高日本的整体经济。他们展示的图表歪曲了正在发生的事情。


Jimmyli
7小时前
All raw materials in Japan need to be imported. If the currency collapses, do you think the economy will be good?Most of the raw materials made in China are self-sufficient. 90% of the raw materials of Japan's industrial products need to be imported. This is the biggest difference.

日本的所有原材料都需要进口,如果货币崩溃,你认为经济会好吗?中国制造的大部分原材料都是自给自足的。而日本工业产品 90% 的原材料需要进口,这是最大的区别。


Vaultoverseer
5小时前
To people who think currency collapsing equals to economy collapsing need to be awared that there is hardly any inflation in Japan, which is normally how currency collapsing impacts economies. Japanese economy is highly independent of the global economy, the only real impact for the people is that it becomes more expensive for them to buy foreign good or travel.

那些认为货币崩溃等于经济崩溃的人需要知道,日本几乎没有通货膨胀,而货币崩溃通常会对经济产生影响。日本经济高度独立于全球经济,对民众的唯一真正影响是,他们购买外国商品或旅游的成本会更高。


Gumerzambrano
1小时前
When I was in Japan earlier this year the yen was 145 and felt rich. Stayed for a month and felt like the same amount of money would have gotten me 1 week in NYC. Everything is cheap

今年年初我去日本的时候,日元是 145,感觉很有钱。我在日本呆了一个月,感觉同样的钱在纽约只需花一个星期。一切都很便宜!


MertAlpay
8小时前
As a Turkish person living in Japan for 3 years, I can easily say that it's really similar to the beginning of the Turkish economic crisis, and LDP keeps postponing to act for a real fix or solution for their own political benefits. It would be so sad if they kept postponing taking the required steps as the Turkish government did and let this problem get worse and worse.

作为一个在日本生活了三年的土耳其人,我可以轻松地说,这与土耳其经济危机之初的情况真的很相似,自民党为了自己的政治利益,一直在推迟采取真正的修复或解决方案。如果他们像土耳其政府那样一直推迟采取必要的措施,让问题变得越来越严重,那就太可悲了。


Verushistorie
7小时前
There is a difference. Japanese debt is 90% owned domestically. Japan is the only economy that run on the principles of a collective capitalist model. Furthermore, Japan has 17 trillion USD in private savings and assets. Not to mention it is the world's largest creditor nation.

这两者是有区别的。日本债务的 90% 为国内所有。日本是唯一一个按照集体资本主义模式运行的经济体。此外,日本拥有 17 万亿美元的私人储蓄和资产。更不用说它还是世界上最大的债权国。


What can be deemed a crisis from a western perspective garnered from a western understanding of parameters and benchmarks that determine such a crisis to occur, may not actually be the case for Japan. Not to mention Japan doesn't have the luxury of a popular government to enforce any kind of change anyway.

从西方的角度来看,根据西方对决定危机发生的参数和基准的理解,可以将其视为危机,但日本的情况可能并非如此。更何况,日本并不奢望有一个受欢迎的政府来实施任何变革。


Tyberzann
7小时前
17 trillion??? What a joke. Japan never had this amount of money, even at their peak. Stop spitting LDP propaganda and just acknowledge that Japan is little by little destroying itself. The economy is now the 4th, most domestic companies don't want to convert their dollars for yen and the government doesn't want to do anything.

17 万亿?开什么玩笑?日本从未有过这么多钱,即使是在他们的巅峰时期。别再吐槽自民党的宣传了,承认日本正在一点一点地自我毁灭吧。现在的经济排名第四,大多数国内公司不想把美元兑换成日元,政府也不想做任何事情。


Shyhalu
7小时前
turkey has been poor for about 300 years now every time they are doing well something horrible happens japan has been rich for most of modern history only a few years after ww2 and in the isolationist era

土耳其已经贫穷了大约300年,每次他们做得好的时候,就会发生一些可怕的事情。日本在现代历史的大部分时间里都很富有,只是在二战后的几年里,在孤立主义时代很贫穷!


JimJumJam
6小时前
Why do western channels always gloss over the Plaza Accords. America MADE Japan strengthen its currency against the dollar, which led to speculation, which led to the 80s/90s bubble.

为什么西方频道总是掩盖《广场协议》?美国迫使日本加强其货币对美元的汇率,这导致了投机,从而引发了 80/90 年代的泡沫。


BulborbPlays
4小时前
The Plaza Accords were signed to end the special benefits that Japan got to rebuild their economy post WWII. Removing the peg and allowing the currency to actually move in value relative to the Dollar is perfectly reasonable when Japan was taking advantage of the policy to export luxury goods at extremely favorable rates and creating a massive trade deficit that shouldn't ordinarily exist.

签署《广场协议》是为了结束日本在二战后重建经济时获得的特殊利益。当日本利用这一政策以极其优惠的汇率出口奢侈品,并造成了本不应存在的巨额贸易逆差时,取消盯住汇率并允许货币相对于美元实际增值是完全合理的。


And what killed growth in the economy after was the Bank of Japan's absurd mismanagement of the Japanese Housing Bubble, not the Plaza Accords. This Bubble likely would have happened regardless of US trade policy, and was exacerbated by a bunch of junk investment loans being given out (and then these loans being cut off all at once for the crash). The same Bubble occured in both South Korea and China, and appears to be a result of Cultural preference to rest investments into property rather than Stock or other Investment vehicles.

而之后扼杀经济增长的是日本央行对日本房地产泡沫荒唐的管理不善,而不是《广场协议》。无论美国的贸易政策如何,这一泡沫都可能会发生,而大量垃圾投资贷款的发放又加剧了这一泡沫。同样的泡沫也发生在韩国和中国(中国的泡沫在技术上仍在继续),这似乎是文化偏好将投资转向房地产而非股票或其他投资工具的结果。


NathanMoura
6小时前
If Japan’s economy is considered “collapsing” then what does that make my country we must have collapsed to the depths of hell at this point

如果日本的经济被认为是 “崩溃”,那么我国巴西又算什么呢?我们现在肯定已经崩溃到地狱的深渊了!


Kevintang
6小时前
The economy has to be built up to a certain level before it can collapse. A skyscraper can collapse, a piece of empty yard can't. And unfortunately the latter is the situation of most of the economy in the world...

经济必须发展到一定程度才会崩溃。摩天大楼可以倒塌,空荡荡的院子却不能。不幸的是,世界上大多数经济体的情况都是后者......


Diegopenya
5小时前
Japan needs to get its manufacturing sector up and running again. A cheap yen would make its exports very attractive.I miss the Made in Japan quality of 80s and 90s. Don't know if they can get back to that quality level after 20+ years of decline.

日本需要重振制造业,廉价的日元将使其出口产品极具吸引力。我怀念上世纪八九十年代日本制造的质量,不知道在经历了 20 多年的衰退之后,他们还能不能回到那个质量水平。


Bgyw
4小时前(修改过)
Don't worry, the US is working on reviving the Japan manufacturing sector since it's now ditching China.

别担心,美国正在努力重振日本制造业,因为它现在已经抛弃了中国。


Donnieamz
2小时前
it wont happen because multinational corporations always aim to invest in cheapest countries. they are looking to manufacture in south asia and southeast asia, which are still much much cheaper than japan plus Jp has an ageing population. Countries like Vietnam and Indonesia have a very young population and can offer cheaper services

这不会发生,因为跨国公司总是以在最便宜的国家投资为目标。他们正在寻求在南亚和东南亚生产,这些国家仍然比日本便宜得多。再加上日本人口老龄化。越南和印度尼西亚等国的人口非常年轻,可以提供更便宜的服务。


Tyberzann
7小时前
Lots of talented people leave Japan due to the falling yen... Especially Software engineers and AI researchers. Japan already had small salaries, but now... That's sad...

由于日元贬值,很多人才离开了日本……尤其是软件工程师和人工智能研究人员。日本的工资本来就很低,但现在... 真是悲哀...


Grizzlybear
7小时前
Japan and South Korea are conglomerate run oligopolies, Japan is just finally seeing the long term downsides of that choice.

日本和韩国都是大财团经营的寡头垄断国家,日本终于看到了这种选择的长期弊端。
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|小黑屋|网站地图|渝公网安备 50019002502186号|音飞网 ( 渝ICP备2022004218号-1 )

GMT+8, 2024-6-26 07:00 , Processed in 0.141455 second(s), 42 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X3.5

Copyright © 2001-2023, Tencent Cloud.