历史学家解释为何放弃拜登无助于民主党?

拜登总统面临越来越大的压力,要求他放弃竞选连任。历史学家艾伦-利奇曼(Allan Lichtman)曾正确预测了过去 10 位总统中的 9 位,他分析了为什么拜登仍是民主党人的最佳选择。

历史学家解释为何放弃拜登无助于民主党?

历史学家解释为何放弃拜登无助于民主党?

Jrtstrategica
11小时前
Thr democrats had 8 yrs since 2016 to remake the Party..they all slept .

自 2016 年以来,民主党人有 8 年的时间来重塑党,他们都睡着了。


Pradeepmagan
13小时前
If Harris runs she would lose

如果哈里斯参选,她会落选!


Cevcena
12小时前
Biden is losing already

拜登已经输了!


MomentsIn
9小时前
This guy literally said the debate won’t effect Biden just 5 days ago!

就在5天前,这家伙还说辩论不会影响拜登!


Italia
2小时前
That still could be true. Hatred of Trump is so vile with some that they would vote for an inanimate object over Trump.

这仍然可能是真的。有些人对特朗普的仇恨是如此卑劣,以至于他们会把票投给一个没有生命的物体而不是特朗普。


Alanmcnew
2小时前
Let’s say they had to choose between Trump for the R and Adolf Hitler for the D. They’d vote blue no matter who.

假设他们必须在共和党的特朗普和民主党的阿道夫-希特勒之间做出选择。不管是谁,他们都会投蓝票。


Brian-Ahavah
1小时前(修改过)
"the debate pretty much decided this election"Now we know why debates are so important and why politicians avoid them.

"辩论几乎决定了这次选举",现在我们知道为什么辩论如此重要,为什么政客们要回避辩论了。


Russelltakemoto
11小时前(修改过)
I call BS on the economic key. If you do nit have assets like stocks, house, etc then you feel this Economy sucks

我认为经济关键是胡说八道。如果你没有股票、房子等资产,那么你就会觉得经济很糟糕。


Bluzin
9小时前
Its not about personal feelings, the economy is based on facts and specific indicators not individual experiences.

这与个人感受无关,经济是基于事实和具体指标的,而不是个人经验。


Hubblebublu
1小时前
Factually speaking inflation rises faster than wages.

实事求是地说,通货膨胀比工资涨得快。


NickMachado
10小时前
Good, its time for the democrats to truly fight for democracy and let the voters decide. We've seen 4 years of trump and 4 of biden. The polls look the way they do for a reason.

很好,是时候让民主党人真正为民主而战,让选民来决定了。我们已经看到了4年的特朗普和4年的拜登。民调如此显示是有原因的。


Dariusonly
11小时前
Muh history interpretations only work if you’re objective.

只有在客观的情况下,对历史的解释才会起作用。


DrBeauHightower
3分钟前
Incumbecy isn't an advantage for president in the Internet era. Every incumbent has performed far worse in the election since social media existed

在互联网时代,在职并不是总统的优势。自从有了社交媒体,每一位现任总统在选举中的表现都差强人意。


Alexandra
8小时前
I don't care for Trump, but to see all these ppl still cheering for Biden after the debate, like a bunch of trained to clap seals, really shows how cultish they are > no different than the MAGA they despise.

我并不支持特朗普,但看到这些人在辩论结束后还在为拜登欢呼,就像一群训练有素的海豹在拍手,这确实显示了他们是多么的崇拜 > 与他们所鄙视的 MAGA(让美国再次伟大)没什么两样。


DaryXnfinite
10小时前
this is the most stupid explaination I have ever seen. Short term economy is a success? This is a big slap to the many americans suffering cause of this unforeseen inflation.

这是我见过的最愚蠢的解释,短期经济就是成功?这是给众多因不可预见的通货膨胀而受苦受难的美国人的一记响亮耳光。


Dukequack
9小时前
A parachuted candidate is an automatic loss. Voters will punish a party that tries to pull a fast one to avoid defeat.

空降的候选人必然失败,选民会惩罚那些试图耍花招避免失败的政党。


DeepVerma
12小时前
Inflation has always been the nail in the coffin for many U.S Presidents.

通货膨胀一直是许多美国总统的致命伤。


Conrad
1小时前
Interest rates up. Insurances up. Basic commodities prices up. People pockets torn to pieces.

利率上升。保险费上涨。基本商品价格上涨。人们的口袋被撕得粉碎。


Dondp
8小时前
it is one thing to drop from the race... it is completely another thing to give up the being president

退出竞选是一回事......放弃总统职位完全是另一回事!


EverTriumph
8小时前(修改过)
Changing horses mid-race is always a recipe for disaster.It, at the very least, shows indecision, and weakness.Support shows strength, and avoids self destruction.

中途换马总是会带来灾难, 它至少显示出优柔寡断和软弱无能。支持则能显示实力,避免自我毁灭。


Junepark
8小时前
The fact the economy is doing "well" doesn't matter its how people feel its doing and going that matter when voting.

经济表现“良好”这一事实并不重要,重要的是人们在投票时如何感受它的表现和发展。


Napkinatorz
9小时前
He represents us on the world stage, you can’t say we have a good advocate on the world stage with one foot in the grave

他在世界舞台上代表着我们,你不能说我们在世界舞台上有一个很好的代言人,却一只脚踏进了坟墓里。


Newworld
5分钟前
Maybe the democratic party should have a democratic process for choosing their candidate instead of forcing their guy in.

也许民主党在选择候选人时应该有一个民主程序,而不是强迫他们的人加入。


CoderRaven
11小时前
Dropping him now would completely eliminate his party from anything in the future...

如果现在放弃他,他所在的党派将来就会完全被排除在外......


TheLaughing
11小时前(修改过)
yes we're in a recession this guy is a dork. Remember the democrats changed the meaning of recession lol. Trump only appeals to a narrow base? You mean 50% of the country? lol.

是的,我们正处于经济衰退中,这家伙是个白痴。还记得民主党人改变了经济衰退的含义吗?特朗普只对少数人有吸引力?你是说50%的美国人?哈哈~~


LookOreo
8小时前(修改过)
Does Biden realy believe the people are stupid? or is this a play which will bring us to a climax with breaking news.

拜登真的相信人民是愚蠢的吗?或者这是一出用突发新闻把我们推向高潮的戏。


Briandriscol
12小时前
Sorry but this historian is out of his depth.The short-term economy sucks. It's only out of deep recession due to massive deficit spending, and the employment numbers are clearly fabricated month to month.Long-term, the economy is deep danger due to the debt spiral and loss of manufacturing. Compared to the Trump economy, well, there is no comparison. Period.

很抱歉,这位历史学家已经超出了他的能力范围。短期经济糟透了。由于大量赤字支出,它才摆脱了深度衰退,而就业数字显然是逐月捏造的。长期来看,由于债务螺旋式上升和制造业流失,经济深陷危险之中。与特朗普经济相比,没有可比性。


The scandals are numerous and deadly, from Afghanistan to ten percent for the Big Guy to the border to the weaponization of multiple govt agencies and departments. Do we need to go on?All the above explains the polls. Which leaves the Dems with a huge challenge when it comes to rigging this next elxn. But I suspect they just may be up to it.

从阿富汗到 "大人物"的10%回扣,再到边境问题,再到多个政府机构和部门的武器化,丑闻层出不穷,而且是致命的。我们还需要继续说下去吗?所有这些都解释了民意调查的原因。这就给民主党在操纵下一轮选举时带来了巨大的挑战。但我猜测他们可能会这么做。


WagesOfDestruction
12小时前
Since its never happened that a president has been in such a situation as Biden is now, how can past performance help?

既然从来没有一位总统像拜登现在这样陷入困境,那么过去的表现又能起到什么作用呢?


Bobblehea
32分钟前
Lol can they please stop telling us the economy is doing well... Interest rates are double that of just a few years ago, housing is unaffordable, cost of living is up nearly 20%, and the cost of gas is 50% higher than just a few years ago. Stopping looking at the unemployment rate or stock prices and look at the interest rates, inflation, and cost of energy. These people.....

他们能不能不要再告诉我们经济形势一片大好?利率是几年前的两倍,住房价格高不可攀,生活成本上升近 20%,汽油价格比几年前高出 50%。别再看失业率或股票价格了,看看利率、通货膨胀和能源成本吧。这些人.....


Listman
12小时前
The real household income is up 0.6% in the last 3 years. Way below the previous 4 years. What the heck is this guy talking about.

过去 3 年,家庭实际收入增长了 0.6%。远远低于前四年的水平。这家伙到底在说什么?


Vincentedelmond
10小时前
No matter what is the situation Democrat voters will vote Democrat and the republican voters Republican ,And which side the Independents will vote that side will win

无论情况如何,民主党选民都会投票给民主党,而共和党选民则会投票给共和党。无党派人士会投哪一方的票,那一方就会赢!


Robertwadas
11小时前
My grocery bill was $128 2 years ago. When I hit reorder ( exact same products) THE TOTAL IS $458... i DO NOT THINK THE SHORT OR LONG TERM ECONOMY IS A WIN.

两年前,我的杂货账单是 128 美元。当我点击重新订购(完全相同的产品)时,总计是 458 美元......我不认为短期或长期经济是赢家。


Withoutpassid
12小时前
The fact that this guy can become a professor is such a shame to the US higher education system.

这家伙能当教授,真是美国高等教育体系的耻辱。


Lasithaarthana
9小时前
Professors are always wrong in politics. They are different creatures than normal humans

教授们在政治上总是出错,他们与常人不同!


Whatwhat
16分钟前(修改过)
Biden should retire now, but he won't, too bad for America..it seems downright selfish of him to hang on to power

拜登现在应该退休了,但他不会,这对美国来说太糟糕了,他继续掌权似乎太自私了!


Jayweezy
1小时前
when your trying to open a 2024 lock with a 1890's key....

当你试图用1890年的钥匙打开2024年的锁时....


Wowbagger
3小时前
Now he says Trump's yelling threw him off in the debate. Does he really expect us to believe this nonsense?!  I have a friend who's a geriatric nurse and sees dementia closeup everyday! She says it's common for older people to become forgetful - you just can't be president of the United States!

现在他又说特朗普在辩论中的大喊大叫把他吓跑了。他真的以为我们会相信这些无稽之谈吗? 我有个朋友是老年病科护士,每天都能近距离观察痴呆症!她说,老年人健忘是常有的事,但你不可能成为美国总统!


Bbrebozo
24分钟前
If it’s governance and not campaigning that counts why campaign?

如果重要的是治理而不是竞选,为什么还要竞选?


Bluecrows
9小时前
The media and democrats are circulating the wagons around him, and this is probably just an example of it. But it is true that changing Biden out now will have major disadvantages that will probably not outweigh the benefits.

媒体和民主党人正在围绕拜登大做文章,这可能只是其中的一个例子。但现在换掉拜登确实会带来很大的弊端,可能得不偿失。
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