加沙战争的三种可能结局!

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阳光使者 2024-6-26 01:30:01 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 阳光使者 于 2024-6-26 01:32 编辑

问题在于,这场战争不仅席卷了哈马斯,还席卷了整个加沙地带。破坏是全面的。对 10 月 7 日袭击的反应甚至超过了所有人的预期。据估计,到目前为止,半数以上的建筑物要么变成了废墟,要么遭到严重破坏,完全无法居住。以色列国防军已不仅仅是军队,它已成为一种拆迁公司,使加沙地带成为名副其实的废墟。你能想象这有多恐怖吗?

加沙战争的三种可能结局!

加沙战争的三种可能结局!

Randscott
2天前
The UN recently lowered the Gaza health ministry estimates from 35,000 down to 24,000 total Gazan deaths of which 15,000 are militants, 4000 are natural deaths, and 5000 civilians as casualties of war. In other words, it is unprecedented that the military deaths to civilian are 3:1 the lowest civilian deaths in all recorded war.

联合国最近将加沙卫生部估计的加沙总死亡人数从3.5万人降至2.4万人,其中1.5万人是武装分子,4000人是自然死亡,5000名平民是战争伤亡。换言之,军事人员与平民的死亡比例为 3:1,这是史无前例的,也是有战争记录以来平民死亡人数最多的一次。


Woolymoldy
2天前
Unfortunately, it appears that Hamas has cut-off Palestinian's chances of having their own state. After the October 7th attack, Israel is unlikely to agree to give any autonomy to Gaza. It must undergo a process of de-radicalization. This process will likely take multiple generations. Along the way, all parties involved must do everything in their power to improve the Gazans' quality of life. The last 19 years produced a generation of people who don't know any better.

不幸的是,哈马斯似乎已经切断了巴勒斯坦人建立自己国家的机会。在 10 月 7 日的袭击之后,以色列不太可能同意给予加沙任何自治权。它必须经历一个去激进化的过程。这一过程可能需要几代人的努力。在这个过程中,所有相关各方都必须竭尽全力改善加沙人的生活质量。过去的 19 年造就了不懂事的一代人。


Peakedaussie
2天前
3 out of every 4 Hamas fighters are war orphans. What did Israel expect them to do? Leave their homeland just because the school bully moved in? That's not the Palestinian way.

每 4 个哈马斯战士中就有 3 个是战争孤儿。以色列希望他们怎么做?仅仅因为学校的恶霸搬进来就离开家园吗?这不是巴勒斯坦人的作风。


Tayyebodeh
2天前
israel was never going to agree to a 2 state solution yasser arafat was able to take west jerusalem and collapse israel but instead shifted to diplomacy and together came up with the oslo accords 95% of palestinians agreed with it yet they sieged yasser arafat's office until his death there was never going to be a 2 state solution and even if it was established its still a very bad one specially for the palestinians and in a few years it will be back to chaos specially under Netanyahu's government

以色列永远不会同意两国解决方案,亚西尔-阿拉法特本来可以占领西耶路撒冷,让以色列崩溃,但他转而采取外交手段,共同达成了奥斯陆协议,95% 的巴勒斯坦人对此表示同意,但他们围攻了亚西尔-阿拉法特的办公室,直到他去世。


Anaravilov
2天前
In Arabic there is a saying, if your house is made of glass, don't throw stones at your neighbor's house!  No one asked them to start a war they can't win, then cry like...

在阿拉伯语中有这样一句谚语:如果你的房子是玻璃做的,就不要向邻居家扔石头! 没有人要求他们发动一场他们赢不了的战争,然后哭得像个孩子一样。


Smearluke
2天前
This is not a war it is a genocide. That’s what people are “crying” about

这不是战争,这是种族灭绝。这就是人们 "哭泣"的原因。


Sherlockwho
2天前
There is no genocide. In every war civilians die. Not so many civilians died in Gaza. 16 000 militants and 20 000 civilians. That is not genocide. It is very low ratio of killed between militants and civilians. Very low compared to other wars.

不存在种族灭绝。每场战争都会有平民死亡。加沙的平民死亡人数并不多。16 000 名武装分子和 20 000 名平民。这不是种族灭绝。武装分子和平民的死亡比例很低。与其他战争相比非常低。


Lifeperhour
2天前
Actually it started with Arab palestians who’ve wanted to genocide the Israelis in 1947 when they decided to go to war with Israel.

事实上,1947 年阿拉伯人决定与以色列开战时,他们就想灭绝以色列人。


Michael
2天前
Is that how the saying goes? If they had a glass house it would requisitioned by the israeli government for a settler, or bulldozed because the government would claim the garden holds significant archaeological findings.

俗话是这么说的吗?如果他们有一座玻璃房子,以色列政府就会征用它来安置定居者,或者用推土机推平,因为政府会声称花园里有重要的考古发现。


Zohaibkhan
2天前
Israel is a settler state. I can't imagine the children of holocaust survivors would inflict worse to others what was done to their forefathers. It is sad and unimaginable.

以色列是一个定居者国家。我无法想象大屠杀幸存者的后代会把他们的祖先所遭受的一切加诸于他人身上。这是可悲的,也是难以想象的。


HUMShaBaK
2天前
israel is not a settler state. They are living in their Homeland. In their own land. Israel is same as What Mecca and Medina is to Muslims. After persecuted in the whole of world, Jews finally came to their ancient homeland to live peacefully. But from the very start , the arabs, who settled in Israel after defeating Byzantine empire, instead of being gracious host and welcoming and living peacefully with Jews , started protesting, rioting, killing jews in British mandated palestine.

以色列不是一个定居者国家。他们生活在自己的家园。在他们自己的土地上。以色列之于穆斯林,就如同麦加和麦地那之于穆斯林。在全世界遭受迫害之后,犹太人终于来到了他们古老的家园,过上了和平的生活。但从一开始,打败拜占庭帝国后定居以色列的阿拉伯人就没有像主人一样热情接待犹太人并与他们和平共处,而是开始抗议、暴动,并在英国委任统治的巴勒斯坦杀害犹太人。


And when Israel was finally created by UN resolution, arab people and arab nations aroumd Israel all attacked at same time on Israel and Israel won fair and square in that war and established it rule in same way Arabs established their  rule over Israel after defeating Byzantine empire. And israel won whole of Israel after 2 more wars in 1967 and 1973. And won them fair and square. And if arab nations have won any of the war, then jews would have be driven out of Israel without mercy and ethnically cleansed from their Homeland

当以色列最终根据联合国决议成立时,阿拉伯人民和以色列周围的阿拉伯国家同时向以色列发动了进攻,以色列在这场战争中赢得了公平公正的胜利,并建立了自己的统治,就像阿拉伯人在打败拜占庭帝国后建立对以色列的统治一样。以色列又在 1967 年和 1973 年的两次战争中赢得了整个以色列。并且赢得了公平公正。如果阿拉伯国家赢得了任何一场战争,那么犹太人就会被毫不留情地赶出以色列,并从他们的家园遭到种族清洗。


IQstrategy
2天前(修改过)
Ending is just beginning of a new phase of conflict. Realize that neither side is going away. More pain inflicted just cycles back as greater waves of vicious hate and then exploding pain.

结束只是冲突新阶段的开始,认识到双方都不会消失。更多的痛苦只会以更大的恶毒仇恨浪潮和爆炸性的痛苦循环往复。


BBBrasil
2天前
No, you are wrong. Have the following thought experiment:
1) Hamas decide to put away their weapons and declare unilateral stop to violence and disband its armed forces. What would happen?
2) Israel decide to put away their weapons and declare unilateral stop to violence and disband its armed forces. What would happen?

不,你错了。请做如下思想实验:
1) 哈马斯决定收起武器,单方面宣布停止暴力并解散武装部队。结果会怎样?
2) 以色列决定收起武器,单方面宣布停止暴力并解散武装部队。会发生什么?


Burrburrcloud
2天前
One side will return home to allow the other side to have their land back!

一方将返回家园,让另一方收回土地!


Noahstevens
2天前
It's amazing how communities are separated by walls where it takes children 2 hours to get through checkpoints to go to school. How civilized and progressive.

社区被围墙隔开,孩子们上学要花 2 个小时才能通过检查站,这太不可思议了。多么文明进步啊。


Dunnowy
2天前(修改过)
If we're judging by the track records of Arab countries, I can't imagine an independent Palestine would be a utopia. More likely, lacking oil wealth, being landlocked and split between two states, and having a relatively small population, it'd be pretty poor and politically chaotic.

如果从阿拉伯国家的历史记录来看,我无法想象一个独立的巴勒斯坦会是一个乌托邦。更有可能的情况是,由于缺乏石油资源、地处内陆且被两个国家分割开来,再加上人口相对较少,巴勒斯坦会非常贫穷,政治上也会非常混乱。


I don't think generations of violent Islamism will translate well into this imagined liberal democracy that Western leftists believe either. Independent Palestine would probably be akin to Pakistan...with an East and West Pakistan that will never actually come together and eventually split apart.

我认为几代人的暴力伊斯兰主义也不会很好地转化为西方左派所认为的自由民主。独立的巴勒斯坦可能会类似于巴基斯坦......东巴基斯坦和西巴基斯坦永远不会真正走到一起,最终会四分五裂。


The reason Israeli political and military elites want to avoid an independent Palestine is yes, SOME strains of Zionism that want all of the land, but mostly because they fear the chaos, foreign influence, and instability that will almost certainly result from it.

以色列政治和军事精英希望避免巴勒斯坦独立的原因是,一些犹太复国主义分子希望得到全部土地,但主要原因是他们害怕混乱、外国影响和不稳定,而这几乎肯定会导致巴勒斯坦独立。


Randscott
2天前
At least 370,000 housing units in Gaza have been damaged, including 79,000 destroyed completely, the report said, along with commercial buildings.

报告称,加沙至少有 37 万个住房单元受损,其中 7.9 万个单元以及商业建筑被完全摧毁。


Liorajacob
2天前
That statistic is consistent with estimates of at least 2/3 of buildings turned into terror bases of some kind, with ubiquitous weapons caches, booby traps, tunnel shafts, rocket launchers, command centers, and underground tunnels which when destroyed damage the buildings above. All this confirmed by the thousands of soldiers on the ground.

据估计,至少有三分之二的建筑物变成了某种恐怖基地,无处不在的武器库、诱杀装置、隧道竖井、火箭发射器、指挥中心和地下隧道一旦被摧毁,上面的建筑物也会遭到破坏。所有这些都得到了当地数千名士兵的证实。


Aloysiuscrake
2天前
Israel will never leave Gaza this time. They have moved in, to stay for good.

以色列这次绝不会离开加沙,他们已经搬进去了,要永远留下来。


Elohimhutov
2天前(修改过)
Why don't Egypt and Jordan just allow them back inside their countries and give citizenship to their Muslim brethren - seeing as these so-called Palestinians, (actually just arabs) originally came from these arab countries, before they settled on the Jewish homeland, dating back over 3,000 years.

埃及和约旦为什么不允许他们回到自己的国家,给他们的穆斯林兄弟以公民身份--因为这些所谓的巴勒斯坦人(实际上只是阿拉伯人)最初来自这些阿拉伯国家,然后才在犹太人的家园定居下来,其历史可以追溯到 3000 多年前。


Most of these arabs were working on the land, for the Ottoman Empire.Alternatively,Ireland may want to have all the arabs in Gaza move to Ireland, or perhaps Spain, Norway or Sweden, could accomodate them?Campuses in the US, Europe and the UK could also accomodate them.There are many options.

这些阿拉伯人中的大多数都在这片土地上为奥斯曼帝国工作。或者,爱尔兰可以让加沙的所有阿拉伯人搬到爱尔兰,或者西班牙、挪威或瑞典也可以接纳他们?美国、欧洲和英国的校园也可以接纳他们。选择有很多。


Rumchjoe
2天前
In the 1980's when Egypt made peace with Israel and recognized Israel's right to exist, PLO leader, Yasser Arafat predicted; if Gaza achieved peace and independence then foreign investment would flow and in time Gaza would  become the Singapore of the Mediterranean.

20 世纪 80 年代,当埃及与以色列实现和平并承认以色列的生存权时,巴解组织领导人亚西尔-阿拉法特曾预言:如果加沙实现和平与独立,那么外商投资将源源不断,假以时日,加沙将成为地中海的新加坡。


Jasporflex
2天前
After the 1948 war, all Arabs that ended up in Israel received Israeli citizenship with equal rights to Jewish Israelis. Get your facts right first of all.

1948年战争后,所有在以色列的阿拉伯人都获得了以色列公民身份,享有与以色列犹太人平等的权利。首先要搞清楚你的事实。


Jonathanrichter
2天前
Sorry, but simply invading Rafah will not mean that Gaza is completely destroyed. The surface may have been destroyed, but there are another entire cities underneath Gaza, from end to end. The IDF has found and destroyed some tunnels, but there are certainly many more that they know nothing about. Unless Hamas surrenders, the IDF is going to keep going until it finds every tunnel is destroyed, and every terrorist dead or in custody.

对不起,入侵拉法并不意味着加沙被完全摧毁。地表可能已被摧毁,但加沙地下从头到尾还有另一整座城市。以色列国防军已经发现并摧毁了一些地道,但肯定还有更多他们一无所知的地道。除非哈马斯投降,否则以色列国防军会一直坚持下去,直到发现每一条隧道都被摧毁,每一个恐怖分子都死亡或被关押。


To make a WW2 analogy, is Hamas going to be like the Germans, whose troops surrendered when they knew they were beaten, or like the Japanese, who fought to last man on every island in the Pacific? It's up to Hamas, not the IDF. They started this.

打个二战的比方,哈马斯是要像德军一样,在自知不敌的情况下投降,还是要像日军一样,在太平洋的每个岛屿上战斗到最后一人?这取决于哈马斯,而不是以色列国防军。是他们挑起了这场战争。


Vitorpeixoto
2天前
I've already thought of 3 option before this video. Gaza could become a full independent country of their own, if conditions are provided (thats the very difficult part). It would be a very small country, but there are smaller working very well. For instance, Malta is smaller than Gaza and its fully independent country and even a full member state of EU.

在这段视频播放之前,我已经想到了三种方案。如果条件允许,加沙可以成为一个完全独立的国家(这是非常困难的部分)。这将是一个非常小的国家,但也有更小的国家运作得很好。例如,马耳他比加沙小,但它是一个完全独立的国家,甚至是欧盟的正式成员国。


ThePugilist
2天前
If Israel has God on it's side, then why does it need billions of my tax dollars?

如果以色列站在上帝一边,那它为什么还需要我的数十亿美元税款?


Koucharles
2天前
Because, has George Carlin said This god just isn't good at handling money. But that's okay. The US taxpayers have lots.

因为,正如乔治-卡林(George Carlin)所说,上帝不擅长处理金钱。不过没关系。美国纳税人有的是钱。


Valerieurquhart
2天前
Fact: USA is largest manufacturer and exporter of armaments (approx 40% of world market) which provides about 1,000,000+ American jobs in that industry.

事实:美国是最大的武器装备生产国和出口国(约占世界市场的 40%),该行业为美国提供了约 100 多万个工作岗位。


Fact: To maintain their #1 standing in the field, the USA government needs to provide subsidies. Unfortunately, holding a huge inventory of this kind is not feasible, partly because of short expiry date due to continual technological advances.

事实:为了保持在该领域的第一地位,美国政府需要提供补贴。遗憾的是,持有大量此类库存是不可行的,部分原因是技术不断进步导致有效期很短。


Fact: American military aid to Israel is contingent upon the money being used to purchase American military armaments, etc. ( to maintain those 1,000,000+ American jobs and #1 World Standing)

事实:美国对以色列的军事援助取决于这笔钱是否用于购买美国的军事装备等(以维持美国的 100 多万个工作岗位和世界第一的地位)


Fact: In researching Israeli exports to USA, one will notice technology on the list, technology which helps keep American armaments at the forefront, further ensuring those 1,000,000 American jobs and that American coveted  #1 World Standing

事实:在研究以色列对美国的出口时,人们会注意到清单上的技术,这些技术有助于保持美国武器装备的领先地位,进一步确保 100 万个美国就业岗位和美国梦寐以求的世界第一的地位。


But rest assured, some customers, especially the Ukraine and Israel, may have second thoughts about depending upon the USA for future supplies of armaments, being as it is somewhat unreliable and has the tendency of adding conditions "after the fact."  Hopefully Israel will have learned its lesson and will resume production of more of its own weaponry in the near future. Besides, drones are the way, and cheaper to produce.  

但请放心,一些客户,特别是乌克兰和以色列,可能会对今后依赖美国供应武器装备产生怀疑,因为美国有些不可靠,而且有 "事后"增加条件的倾向。 希望以色列能吸取教训,在不久的将来恢复生产更多自己的武器装备。此外,无人机才是王道,而且生产成本更低。
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